So I'm thinking about starting a side blog to post things specific to my area of professional speciality. You may wonder what that is. Some times I do to! In a nutshell I am in control of a Statistical Demand Forecasting and Inventory Replenishment system for a small to medium sized company with corporate offices in 5 countries and a global supply chain and customer base. I'm particularly thinking about posting about forecasting issues, global trade and process management, and my efforts to equip the line forecasters with the tools they need (both technology and training).
I'm open to suggestions for naming and anything else.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Not so triumphant return...
After a 24 month or so absence, I'm thinking about returning to semi-regular blogging. I've taken a different professional position within my company that has pulled the hours and stress level back to a reasonable amount. Further, I kind of feel like I might have something to say again. We'll see of course, the proof shall be in the pudding.
Also, I'm going to close comments on the old posts as they seem to have been taken over by randomness anyway. Don't know if I still have any readers left, but if so "Hi"!
Also, I'm going to close comments on the old posts as they seem to have been taken over by randomness anyway. Don't know if I still have any readers left, but if so "Hi"!
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
What I've been reading since 1/1/11
Lair's Poker by Michael Lewis - a quick entertaining read about being inside the Wall StreetMachine during the bond boom that started in the late Eighties. Features the most understandable discussion of CDO's I've seen! (CDO being "collateralized debt obligation" otherwise known as the financial instrument that helped to fuel the demand for investment in mortgages which ultimately helped create the conditions for the panic of 2008.)
Churchill by Paul Johnson - a loving biography of Winston Churchill by a man who knew him and obviously respected him. Assumes reader familiarity with Churchill to already exist, so at least read wikipedia before starting. Nice, Warm biography of Churchill - short ones are quite rare!
Next to read: Great Fortune - Daniel Okrent Update - read it. Great book to describe the Rockefeller Center project. Read a lot of other stuff too - maybe I'll get around to posting about the highlights.
Churchill by Paul Johnson - a loving biography of Winston Churchill by a man who knew him and obviously respected him. Assumes reader familiarity with Churchill to already exist, so at least read wikipedia before starting. Nice, Warm biography of Churchill - short ones are quite rare!
Next to read: Great Fortune - Daniel Okrent Update - read it. Great book to describe the Rockefeller Center project. Read a lot of other stuff too - maybe I'll get around to posting about the highlights.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Reason to fear China
One common argument — at least prior to the crisis — was that sovereign investors, because of their long-term focus, were generally a stabilizing presence in the market. Sovereign wealth funds in particular. And presumably central bank reserve managers as well. After all, in many cases, the line between a sovereign wealth fund and an aggressively managed central bank reserve portfolio is rather thin.*
From my google feed
Sent from my iPhone
Sent from my iPhone
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Alton Brown is a genius!
I was inspired by a Good Eats episode (Specifically the episode titled "Q") to build a smoker from scratch.
It turned out incredibly well. I smoked 4 bone-in chicken breasts and 2 turkey Keilbasas on Saturday. The chicken was ready in about 4 hours. I smoked a 4 pound Pork Butt and some Polish Sausages on Sunday. The Sausages were ready in about 3-4 horus and the Pork Butt I took off after 8 hours, but probably should have gone a couple more. It was DELICIOUS, but it wasn't completely fall-apart-on-its-own yet.
What you'll need:
3 bricks
2 terra cotta pots, I suggest one 16" and one 14"
A replacement grill thermometer
A 13" replacement grill grate (round)
A cheap hotplate
A heavy duty pieplate or subsitute
Hardwood Chips
Meat
1: Take the large pot and set it right side up on the three bricks so that you have clear access to the drainage hole on the bottom (making sure that said hole can get airflow).
2: Turn the hotplate to high and set in the bottom of the pot, run the cord out through the bottom. Do not plug in yet.
3: Set the pieplate on the heating element of pieplate. And fill with your choice of wood chips.
4: Set the replacement grill grate in the pot. It will catch on the sides and wedge in pretty securely.
5: Arrange your meat on the grate.
6: Place the smaller pot upside down over the lower pot and try to align for a "good" seal. The seal won't be great, but hey, this is cheap.
7: Place the replacement themrometer in drainage hole in the top pot.
8: Plug in hotplate.
It turned out incredibly well. I smoked 4 bone-in chicken breasts and 2 turkey Keilbasas on Saturday. The chicken was ready in about 4 hours. I smoked a 4 pound Pork Butt and some Polish Sausages on Sunday. The Sausages were ready in about 3-4 horus and the Pork Butt I took off after 8 hours, but probably should have gone a couple more. It was DELICIOUS, but it wasn't completely fall-apart-on-its-own yet.
What you'll need:
3 bricks
2 terra cotta pots, I suggest one 16" and one 14"
A replacement grill thermometer
A 13" replacement grill grate (round)
A cheap hotplate
A heavy duty pieplate or subsitute
Hardwood Chips
Meat
1: Take the large pot and set it right side up on the three bricks so that you have clear access to the drainage hole on the bottom (making sure that said hole can get airflow).
2: Turn the hotplate to high and set in the bottom of the pot, run the cord out through the bottom. Do not plug in yet.
3: Set the pieplate on the heating element of pieplate. And fill with your choice of wood chips.
4: Set the replacement grill grate in the pot. It will catch on the sides and wedge in pretty securely.
5: Arrange your meat on the grate.
6: Place the smaller pot upside down over the lower pot and try to align for a "good" seal. The seal won't be great, but hey, this is cheap.
7: Place the replacement themrometer in drainage hole in the top pot.
8: Plug in hotplate.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Housekeeping
I've added a few things to the sidebar lately.
First, a box linking to my results at Predictify, a site which very comes up with a knowledge market pretty slickly. By publicly posting my results, I force myself to be try to be right more often, rather than voting for which option I *hope* comes true, thus increasing the validity of the results.
Second, I use Google Reader to keep track of RSS feeds from my favorites sites. This has an added advantage to me of being able to mark posts I think everyone should read and having them show up in my sidebar. If you want to know what I think is worthwhile, that's a good place to go.
I think that's everything, have a great spring!
First, a box linking to my results at Predictify, a site which very comes up with a knowledge market pretty slickly. By publicly posting my results, I force myself to be try to be right more often, rather than voting for which option I *hope* comes true, thus increasing the validity of the results.
Second, I use Google Reader to keep track of RSS feeds from my favorites sites. This has an added advantage to me of being able to mark posts I think everyone should read and having them show up in my sidebar. If you want to know what I think is worthwhile, that's a good place to go.
I think that's everything, have a great spring!
Saturday, January 03, 2009
New Year Economics Post
Things could be better.
The way I see it, and there are LOTS of ways to see it, there are three phases to an economic contraction. Looked at from an employment perspective, I think it looks like this:
Phase 1: Layoffs in "backrooms". Mergers almost always produce these as the combined entity looks to eliminate duplicate job functions. Also, call centers, data processors and other "non contact" areas see losses. Most often spotted in service sector businesses. Most contractions stop here.
Phase 2: Layoffs in "production". The GM work holiday is a good example of this. These are layoffs in manufacturing and other profit generating centers of the economy. This is when you know things are not good. The cuts happen because the job losses sustained in Phase 1 are great enough to shift aggregate consumer demand low enough to impact the profitability of entire companies. The 80's recession stopped here.
Phase 3: Layoffs in "Sales". This includes not just salespeople, but any other area which directly impacts the way a company see itself directly generating demand for it's goods or services. This is easy to misinterpret as there is a lot churn in this area, particularly in "Sales Person" type jobs. However, when companies begin to meaningfully cut their sales staff (and hence sales potential), they've pretty much given up hope. As a company goes bankrupt, the sales jobs are often among the very last to go.
Right now, I believe we're several steps into Phase 2. The production layoffs are currently happening in mostly only marginally profitable businesses, but over time they'll spread into business which were very profitable a few years ago. When they do, the businesses cutting production now will likely be cutting Sales capacity.
Have a look around yourself, think about the people you know who've lost their job or cuts you've heard about. Let me know in the comments what you think. From my current employment, I'm seeing lots of Phase 1 and some Phase 2 cuts at both our customers and vendors. Right now our vendors are in worse shape as a whole, than our customers.
The way I see it, and there are LOTS of ways to see it, there are three phases to an economic contraction. Looked at from an employment perspective, I think it looks like this:
Phase 1: Layoffs in "backrooms". Mergers almost always produce these as the combined entity looks to eliminate duplicate job functions. Also, call centers, data processors and other "non contact" areas see losses. Most often spotted in service sector businesses. Most contractions stop here.
Phase 2: Layoffs in "production". The GM work holiday is a good example of this. These are layoffs in manufacturing and other profit generating centers of the economy. This is when you know things are not good. The cuts happen because the job losses sustained in Phase 1 are great enough to shift aggregate consumer demand low enough to impact the profitability of entire companies. The 80's recession stopped here.
Phase 3: Layoffs in "Sales". This includes not just salespeople, but any other area which directly impacts the way a company see itself directly generating demand for it's goods or services. This is easy to misinterpret as there is a lot churn in this area, particularly in "Sales Person" type jobs. However, when companies begin to meaningfully cut their sales staff (and hence sales potential), they've pretty much given up hope. As a company goes bankrupt, the sales jobs are often among the very last to go.
Right now, I believe we're several steps into Phase 2. The production layoffs are currently happening in mostly only marginally profitable businesses, but over time they'll spread into business which were very profitable a few years ago. When they do, the businesses cutting production now will likely be cutting Sales capacity.
Have a look around yourself, think about the people you know who've lost their job or cuts you've heard about. Let me know in the comments what you think. From my current employment, I'm seeing lots of Phase 1 and some Phase 2 cuts at both our customers and vendors. Right now our vendors are in worse shape as a whole, than our customers.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
I Voted
I voted today. I'm not going to list who for, but as is typical it was a very eclectic ballot. I particularly enjoyed the "ballot initiatives" on the ballot. Do I support outlawing cell phone use on city streets? Um, no. Do I support alternative voting schemes? Maybe, but the poorly worded question does not encourage me. Do I want Illinois to have a new constitutional convention? Only if a different state will write the constitution!
I voted a little before 7am, and waited about 15 minutes. There were more voting booths than I remember from years past and the poll workers seemed better trained. Both positive outcomes.
I voted a little before 7am, and waited about 15 minutes. There were more voting booths than I remember from years past and the poll workers seemed better trained. Both positive outcomes.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Darts?
So...let's play a game.
Let's assume that 10% of the people you know right now are unemployed. Let's also assume that in 3 months that 10% will have a job and a new 10% will be unemployed. Rinse, and repeat for 10 cycles. Everyone's been unemployed now for 3 months, at different times. Make sense?
Ok, in this imaginary situation: Why type of businesses do well? Obviously temp agencies have a bright future, as well as collection agencies. What else can you think of?
Let's assume that 10% of the people you know right now are unemployed. Let's also assume that in 3 months that 10% will have a job and a new 10% will be unemployed. Rinse, and repeat for 10 cycles. Everyone's been unemployed now for 3 months, at different times. Make sense?
Ok, in this imaginary situation: Why type of businesses do well? Obviously temp agencies have a bright future, as well as collection agencies. What else can you think of?
Monday, September 29, 2008
Well this should keep things interesting
The bailout failed. Bad news, we will see how robust our markets are. Watch your money held in money market funds. The government has pledged to back the share price, but there's only so many dollars we can print before that stops working.
On the bright side, we are entering the phase where the banks are "all in". Soon we'll know who has bad books and who has good ones. Once we know that, credit will begin to flow again.
Sent from my iPhone
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